Covid-19 and the elephant in the room

The current reporting of CV-19 is rather disappointing. It is shallow and emotive. There is more focus on clapping the NHS and reporting relatives’ comments about their dead loved ones than having a rational debate about the impact of the virus.

For instnace, there is virtually no discussion and analysis about those who are dying. In the UK up to 17 April there were 13918 deaths in hospital (and presumably many more in care homes and at home; it is only in the last couple of days that journalists have picked up on this). Of these 12727 were aged over 60, that is 91.4%. There were 1079 deaths in the age group 40-59 (7.8%), leaving only 112 (0.75%) 39 or under. If CV-19 is equally likely to affect everyone as is generally reported then these figures must be wrong. From the evidence so far CV-19 affects those with a pre-existing health condition more severely than others. We know that pre-existing conditions are correlated with age, so again older people are more likely to die.

A number of NHS staff and carers have died, and these are presumably younger than the average of those who are dying, but we do not know whether they had pre-existing conditions. For younger people generally, though there are not many deaths, there are some. We should be focusing on these cases and determining a) did they die of CV-19, b) did they have a pre-existing disorder, and c) are there other reasons they may have become infected (other personal factors, genetic, environmental, etc). There is also the issue of whether some ethnic groups are more likely to get CV-19. Furthermore, from what we understand so far men are more susceptible than women.

It is still relatively early days, and we don’t have full datasets regarding who has died of CV-19 and what comorbid conditions they had (if any), but the data we do have suggests that older people are much more likely to die of the virus than younger people, particularly if they have a pre-existing condition.

Given this situation, the next argument must be about economic strategy. At the moment outside the fields of health and food distribution there is relatively little economic activity in the country. This situation, the longer it continues, will have a growing impact on the physical and mental health of the population. People will start getting ill and dying of things other than CV-19, they probably already are. There are many people with illnesses that are not being treated normally because hospitals are focusing on CV-19.

I am not claiming that the current strategy is necessarily wrong, what I am saying is that we need a much higher level of debate at all levels to develop an appropriate strategy for the future. The Government is saying there will be no strategy for the time being, and it is also saying that the membership of SAGE (the scientific advisory body for the Government) will be kept secret. These are terrible decisions. We are in desperate need of decent investigative journalists, effective opposition MPs and scientists who are prepared to openly debate, discuss and challenge the Government’s position.