Time to end the Covid restrictions?

I have thought for some time that the Covid restrictions are possibly more dangerous to our health than allowing Covid to run its course ‘naturally’. The Great Barrington Declaration (GBD, https://gbdeclaration.org/) comes at a critical time, when governments are imposing yet more restrictions on movement, meetings and economic activity. For those who have missed the flurry of scientific argument over the last few days, the GBD is a document signed by several thousand scientists and medics who believe that the current restrictions should be removed and herd immunity allowed to run its course with Covid, with the proviso that the old and the vulnerable should be protected. It does not spell out in detail how all this should happen, but it is a starting point.

It is time that this position was laid out for debate. For too long the discussions about the impact of Covid have been too narrow, with the strong view that we need to wear masks, socially distance, work from home, etc, even though there is little solid evidence that these are having a positive effect – there is no control group to make a comparison with. While the science around a new virus is inevitably going to be ambiguous, the data contradictory, and speculations rife, we have had little opportunity to challenge the status quo. This is not only poor science, it also undermines the liberal consensus that has dominated Western society for centuries. Where controls are shown to be necessary we can accept the,, but it is not acceptable to force people to act in ways contrary to their wishes without very strong evidence, and then for as little time as possible.

Herd immunity was briefly considered and rejected by the UK Government early in the crisis. Perhaps at the time this was the right decision, perhaps not. Seven months on we know more, though we still lack consensus. The contradictions in the data and analyses are still present, the limitations of the actual data signficant. What we do know is that Covid tends to kill the old and the sick. It has relatively little impact on other groups. Yes, some younger people die, and there is the problem of long term illness in some people which seems to be a result of Covid infection, but most people are only affected to a minor degree.

While older people are expected to die – that is the nature of things – you may be wondering how we can think about a strategy that might allow younger people to die. Who are these younger people who are getting seriously ill and dying from Covid? Presumably people with underlying health conditions are at risk as with older age groups. Are there other factors involved such as illegal drug use making someone vulnerable? Is it drinking habits? Are there other general social risk factors which lead to a higher risk of having a severe response to Covid? We need to know these things, and if it is the case that there are risk factors then younger age groups need to be educated about them so they can make choices about how to behave.

To turn to the detrimental effects of the restrictions. Should we be imposing these restrictions on the general population when we know they are having a detrimental effect on both health and the economy?

The economic restrictions have put many people out of work, many others have reduced income, many businesses have gone bust or are struggling, cash reserves are dwindling fast both at the national level and in terms of individuals’ and businesses’ bank accounts. The health impact of the damaged ecomony is unclear, but it is inevitably going to be – already is – severe.

Another area of concern is that many hospitals restricted or shut down their normal care for people when the Covid crisis started. Health workers were shifted into Covid-ready positions, beds were cleared for the expected rush of Covid patients. This meant that many people with severe illnesses who required urgent treatment did not receive it. How many died, how many have a reduced life expectancy, how many remain more ill than they should be, remains to be seen. During the crisis period of April and May this year many more people died than we would normally expect. It is assumed they died because of Covid. That is probably so for some. It is also very likely that many died because they did not receive treatment for other serioous diseases.

I should declare a personal interest. Just before lockdown I was diagnosed with heart failure and with atrial fibrillation. That makes me ‘vulnerable’ (which is partly why I am happy to consider the argument of herd immunity, I may end up one of the victims (In the end the population matters more than the individual). I have recently had successful treatment for my atrial fibrillation that has made my health and my life significantly better. I should have received this treatment in April or May. I received it in September. Just a small example, but it shows the impact of the NHS shutting down much of its general treatment for Covid. Healthwise, I have been very ill most of the year instead of for two or three months, economically I have been off work since January. This has cost my employer a significant amount of money. I could have been back at work in May (hopefully I will be back in November).

Yes, I have signed the Great Barrington Declaration. I have joined the thousands of other scientists and medical practitioners who want to change the way we are dealing with Covid. Yes, there are problems with the position. It might be wrong, but we need to at least look at the alternatives to the current course of action which is undoubtedly causing a great deal of problems regarding health and the economy both within the country and across the world. I worry that once we get back to normal and analyse the impact of Covid we will find significantly more problems because of our over-reaction (?) than because of the virus itself.